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Subject: Re: CNN Interactive Story on Cayman Farm and Release of Kemp's
From: Don Hockaday <[log in to unmask]>
Reply-To:Sea Turtle Biology and Conservation <[log in to unmask]>
Date:Wed, 10 Sep 1997 14:38:12 -0500
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On 10 Sept 1997, Rod said   RE: Camyman Turtle Farm releases:

>How many offspring would the original breeding pairs have produced if they
>had survived and bred in the wild for 15 years?

I did not see the original post.
These are all valid questions, but there are others:

On the average, how many offspring of each original breeding pair would be
expected to reach the size of farm-released turtles had the pair been left
in the wild?
vs.
How many turtles of that size will eventually be released for each breeding
pair ever taken into captivity, and held for their lifetimes,  by the farm?

If the farm is releasing 352 hatchlings, it is just throwing them away. The
probability of even one of these turtles reaching maturity is slim.

My gut feeling is each time 352 one-month-old turtles are released to the
wild, they would equal the expected lifetime reproductive success of 3 or 4
pairs of young, wild, adult turtles.  I would add another turtle for each
of the next two months they are held before release -- and maybe another if
held for a full year.

Perhaps someone has a survivorship curve and will correct that blind guess.

Don
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