For those of you who follow the debate about future oil supply:
This will take you a while, because reading the comments is a must, even if you only skim the report itself. To interpret the thread of such reports, you need to realize that the IEA forecasts of oil supply (flow) are actually forecasts of oil demand, with no relation to the realities of oil stocks. Thus IEA reports and others derived from their data assume that supply will rise to meet demand. I've de-emphasized the word supply in the sentence above, because economists use the word to mean flow or production per unit of time, not physical stocks, thus ignoring the question of whether the resource is finite. It's no wonder we're confused.
Dr. Stephen R. Humphrey, Director of Academic Programs,
School of Natural Resources and Environment,
Box 116455, 103 Black Hall, University of Florida
Gainesville, FL 32611-6455 USA
Tel. 352-392-9230, Fax 352-392-9748