On Mon, 23 Jul 2001, Valdis wrote:
> Can we stop the AIDS epidemic by focusing on the high degree Hubs in the
I agree with the others who have followed up. We must be careful not to
let the constraints or focus of a model overly constrain our possible
avenues of attack.
I hope this isn't inappropriate, but off the cuff I see value in a
physical analogy of networks. I have no URLs to cite, sadly.
Networks - corresponds to pipes, interconnected between nodes.
Infection - corresponds to fluid transported by pipes.
Fluid flow volume over time through a node is trivially as follows:
cross-section X velocity X density
cross-section = proportionate to connectivity
velocity = proportionate to frequency of transmission
density = proprotionate to effectiveness of transmission
The model suggests three points of attack to stem flow, aside from the
elimination of nodes in the network.
minimize cross-section: high connectivity hubs
minimize velocity: numerically common vectors
minimize density: high risk infectivity vectors
Prevention efforts should attack all three, depending on which is most
effective. There is no a priori one best attack mode from this model.
From the model, one should be able to demonstrate the effectiveness of
each method of attack individually, but a combined picture gives a more
accurate assessment of the situation.