*****  To join INSNA, visit http://www.insna.org  *****

In the continuation of her article, Dr. Oreskes cites the story of plate 
tectonics denial.  I just wanted to add that perhaps the most 
influential voice in 20th century statistics--that of R.A. 
Fisher--continued to rail against the association of smoking and lung 
cancer until his death.  There are relativity-deniers, 
evolution-deniers, HIV-deniers etc.  I agree with Dr. Oreskes that they 
are not the problem.  The problem rests with the people in power who try 
to turn such arguments into convenient truths.

Rich Rothenberg

Valdis Krebs wrote:

> *****  To join INSNA, visit http://www.insna.org  *****
>
> In today's LA Times, the author of the original study responds to the 
> WSJ op-ed piece...
>
>> I am the author of that study, which appeared two years ago in the 
>> journal Science, and I'm here to tell you that the consensus stands. 
>> The argument put forward in the Wall Street Journal was based on an 
>> Internet posting; it has not appeared in a peer-reviewed journal — 
>> the normal way to challenge an academic finding. (The Wall Street 
>> Journal didn't even get my name right!)
>>
>>  My study demonstrated that there is no significant disagreement 
>> within the scientific community that the Earth is warming and that 
>> human activities are the principal cause.
>>
>> Papers that continue to rehash arguments that have already been 
>> addressed and questions that have already been answered will, of 
>> course, be rejected by scientific journals, and this explains my 
>> findings. Not a single paper in a large sample of peer-reviewed 
>> scientific journals between 1993 and 2003 refuted the consensus 
>> position, summarized by the National Academy of Sciences, that "most 
>> of the observed warming of the last 50 years is likely to have been 
>> due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations."
>
>
> http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-oreskes24jul24,0,823343.story
>
> On Jul 14, 2006, at 9:47 PM, Valdis Krebs wrote:
>
>> *****  To join INSNA, visit http://www.insna.org  *****
>>
>> Opinion piece in today's WSJ claims that SNA shows that the scientists
>> whom agree on global warming are all a tightly-knit group -- a mutual
>> admiration society -- that dismiss all contrary findings without
>> consideration.
>>
>> Here is an excerpt... Wall Street Journal; July 14, 2006; Page A12
>>
>> > In addition to debunking the hockey stick, Mr. Wegman goes a step
>> > further in his report, attempting to answer why Mr. Mann's mistakes
>> > were not exposed by his fellow climatologists. Instead, it fell to two
>> > outsiders, Messrs. McIntyre and McKitrick, to uncover the errors.
>> > Mr. Wegman brings to bear a technique called social-network analysis
>> > to examine the community of climate researchers. His conclusion is
>> > that the coterie of most frequently published climatologists is so
>> > insular and close-knit that no effective independent review of the
>> > work of Mr. Mann is likely. "As analyzed in our social network," Mr.
>> > Wegman writes, "there is a tightly knit group of individuals who
>> > passionately believe in their thesis." He continues: "However, our
>> > perception is that this group has a self-reinforcing feedback
>> > mechanism and, moreover, the work has been sufficiently politicized
>> > that they can hardly reassess their public positions without losing
>> > credibility.
>> >
>> > In other words, climate research often more closely resembles a
>> > mutual-admiration society than a competitive and open-minded search
>> > for scientific knowledge. And Mr. Wegman's social-network graphs
>> > suggest that Mr. Mann himself -- and his hockey stick -- is at the
>> > center of that network.
>>
>> Since this has become a political issue, is the opposing group also an
>> echo chamber? Similar to the red-blue political divide we see in the 
>> USA?
>>
>> Would be interesting to run Mark Newman's community algorithm on all
>> scientists/papers involved in global warming, eh?
>>
>> Valdis
>
>
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-- 
Richard Rothenberg, MD
Professor, Department of Medicine
Division of Infectious Disease
Emory University School of Medicine
Editor, Annals of Epidemiology
49 Jesse Hill Jr. Drive
Atlanta, GA 30303
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