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It's a complicated system -- a 2 mode network, with other possible
reservoirs (e.g., other animal hosts). To do it right, everything
from the lifecycle of the mosquito (at the micro level) and the travel
patterns of the hosts (at the macro level) need to be represented. This
is not just an agent based model, it's population level simulation with
demographics and migration.
In a case like this, it's an open question whether the contact network can
be approximated by random mixing. It depends on the contribution of
sexual transmission of Zika to the overall spread. If that's minimal, the
value of modeling the agents directly (which allows for detailed
representation of the contact patterns that network analysts care about)
may be less valuable than modeling the compartments (humans, mosquitos,
other hosts) in the aggregate. So, not an agent or network based model.
That said, epidemic modelers have been modeling dengue (also spread by the
Aedes aegypti mosquito) and malaria (spread by Anopheles) for decades, so
there's lots of literature to draw on.
best,
Martina
On Sun, 29 May 2016, Valdis Krebs wrote:
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>
> Looking at both sides of the Zika / Olympics in Brazil controversy...
> 1) letter from 175+ scientists — http://www.rioolympicslater.org
> 2) opinion form the World Health Organization (WHO) — http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/29/world/americas/zika-olympics-rio-who.html
>
> I wonder what data/analysis both groups are looking at. Is anyone doing epidemic modeling? Both one-step and two-step transmission? Can something this large be modeled effectively? Maybe agent-based systems?
>
> Valdis
>
> Valdis Krebs
> Orgnet, LLC
>
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