*****  To join INSNA, visit http://www.insna.org  *****

It's a complicated system -- a 2 mode network, with other possible 
reservoirs (e.g., other animal hosts).  To do it right, everything 
from the lifecycle of the mosquito (at the micro level) and the travel 
patterns of the hosts (at the macro level) need to be represented.  This 
is not just an agent based model, it's population level simulation with 
demographics and migration.

In a case like this, it's an open question whether the contact network can 
be approximated by random mixing.  It depends on the contribution of 
sexual transmission of Zika to the overall spread.  If that's minimal, the 
value of modeling the agents directly (which allows for detailed 
representation of the contact patterns that network analysts care about) 
may be less valuable than modeling the compartments (humans, mosquitos, 
other hosts) in the aggregate.  So, not an agent or network based model.

That said, epidemic modelers have been modeling dengue (also spread by the 
Aedes aegypti mosquito) and malaria (spread by Anopheles) for decades, so 
there's lots of literature to draw on.

best,
Martina

On Sun, 29 May 2016, Valdis Krebs wrote:

> *****  To join INSNA, visit http://www.insna.org  *****
>
> Looking at both sides of the Zika / Olympics in Brazil controversy...
> 1) letter from 175+ scientists — http://www.rioolympicslater.org
> 2) opinion form the World Health Organization (WHO) — http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/29/world/americas/zika-olympics-rio-who.html
>
> I wonder what data/analysis both groups are looking at.  Is anyone doing epidemic modeling?  Both one-step and two-step transmission?  Can something this large be modeled effectively?  Maybe agent-based systems?
>
> Valdis
>
> Valdis Krebs
> Orgnet, LLC
>
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