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The primary finding was that high school grades are consistently the
strongest predictor of any factor of success through four years in college.
And contrary to what researchers expected to find, the predictive value of
high school grades goes up as students progress through college, even though
more time has passed since high school.

Significantly, the predictive value of high school grades was equally strong
across different cohorts of students by socioeconomic status, but fields of
study, and by university campus. The importance of that finding is that it
stands in contrast to the SAT, for which the California researchers - like
many others - found a strong correlation between high scores and
socioeconomic status. So the researchers found that grades not only are the
best tool to predict success, but don't carry the problem of seeming to
favor the wealthy and some racial groups over others.

June 19, 2007


Questioning the Admissions Assumptions


A major study
<http://cshe.berkeley.edu/publications/docs/ROPS.GEISER._SAT_6.12.07.pdf>
released Monday by the University of California suggests that high school
grades may be good at predicting not only first-year college performance, as
commonly believed, but performance throughout four undergraduate years. The
same study suggests that the SAT adds little predictive value to admissions
decisions and is hindered by a high link between SAT scores and
socioeconomic status - a link not present for high school grades.

And further, the study finds that all of the information admissions officers
currently have is of limited value, and accounts for only 30 percent of the
grade variance in colleges - leaving 70 percent of the variance unexplained.

Source/continue article:  http://insidehighered.com/news/2007/06/19/admit

 

Link to 35-page pdf:
http://cshe.berkeley.edu/publications/docs/ROPS.GEISER._SAT_6.12.07.pdf

 

VALIDITY OF HIGH-SCHOOL GRADES IN PREDICTING

STUDENT SUCCESS BEYOND THE FRESHMAN YEAR:

High-School Record vs. Standardized Tests as

Indicators of Four-Year College Outcomes*


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