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In 2000, the IEA (and many of their national equivalents, such as our EIA) 
projected end of decade price of oil at around $35 per barrel.

This puts the EIA in the running as as the world's most well paid and 
mono-dimensional analysts. Yet entire national economies are stuctured 
around their pretty charts. If they were energy navigators, we hit the reef 
already years ago.

- Mark



----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Humphrey,Stephen R" <[log in to unmask]>
To: <[log in to unmask]>
Sent: Thursday, July 31, 2008 2:18 PM
Subject: Mainstream Dutch analysts foresee oil supply constrained world


For those of you who follow the debate about future oil supply:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4358
This will take you a while, because reading the comments is a must, even if 
you only skim the report itself.  To interpret the thread of such reports, 
you need to realize that the IEA forecasts of oil supply (flow) are actually 
forecasts of oil demand, with no relation to the realities of oil stocks. 
Thus IEA reports and others derived from their data assume that supply will 
rise to meet demand.  I've de-emphasized the word supply in the sentence 
above, because economists use the word to mean flow or production per unit 
of time, not physical stocks, thus ignoring the question of whether the 
resource is finite.  It's no wonder we're confused.


Dr. Stephen R. Humphrey, Director of Academic Programs,
School of Natural Resources and Environment,
Box 116455, 103 Black Hall, University of Florida
Gainesville, FL  32611-6455  USA
Tel. 352-392-9230, Fax 352-392-9748
http://snre.ufl.edu<http://snre.ufl.edu/>