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Bob,

Another way of analyzing this might be to use an "agent-based-modelling"
approach like that used in NetLogo ( http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/ ).
 This is a free application available from Northwestern Univ and it has
model libraries as part of the package.  One of the sample models is called
"Virus on a Network".  There are also generic diffusion models for networks
and 'infection' models.

Regards,
Mike.

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