Hi all,


Rain chances for the AL - NW FL coasts range from 70% to 40% all next week!
This is the result of a series of upper level disturbances which will track
along the coast and lower south. Forecast winds remain basically SE to S
during the period, fairly light (8 - 13 knots) in strength, not enough I
should think, to vector ALL the birds to the TX coast. The question is, in
light winds out of the SE, surface and aloft in the Gulf, will birds home in
on the Appalachians where many breed and head N or NE. I don't know the
answer to that one! I should think so. Hopefully, some will come our way. We
should continue to get West Indian migrants under the forecast conditions,
however (evident by several Black-whiskered Vireo reports). At any rate,
things are looking up.


The conditions forecast above occurred yesterday and brought us here in Gulf
Breeze (also reports from Ft. Pickens and Dauphin Is.) a modest number of
migrants, basically West Indian. The Duncan clan, Scot, Will, Lucy and I,
logged 63 species in our "hood" without getting into a car! Best bird a Cave
Swallow. Peveto Woods in SW LA had 19 species of warblers, which fits well
with the weather pattern of fairly light SE influence for the entire Gulf.


Regarding Black-whiskered Vireos, two sub-species occur in our area. The one
that occurs in south FL, Vireo altiloquus barbatulus, most resembles the
Red-eyed Vireo. The other, V. a. altiloquus, is the Caribbean sub-species
some of which migrate north in spring and overshoot into our area. They are
browner overall, with a larger bill and fainter whisker than barbatulus. So
note what you might have, because today's sub-species may be tomorrow's full
species. I have found that the two types occur about equally in our area.


Bob Duncan

Gulf Breeze in the w. Panhandle

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