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   Barry Wellman
  _______________________________________________________________________
   FRSC                 INSNA Founder               University of Toronto
   http://www.chass.utoronto.ca/~wellman           twitter: @barrywellman
   NETWORKED:The New Social Operating System.  Lee Rainie & Barry Wellman
   MIT Press            http://amzn.to/zXZg39        Print $14  Kindle $9
   _______________________________________________________________________


---------- Forwarded message ----------
Date: Mon, 25 May 2015 11:02:29 +0000
From: "[utf-8] Complexity Digest" <[log in to unmask]>
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To: "[utf-8] Barry" <[log in to unmask]>
Subject: [utf-8] Latest Complexity Digest Posts

Learn about the latest and greatest related to complex systems research. More at http://unam.us4.list-manage1.com/track/click?u=0eb0ac9b4e8565f2967a8304b&id=053d624721&e=55e25a0e3e



˙˙Waiting for Carnot˙˙: Information and complexity

    The relationship between information and complexity is analyzed using a detailed literature analysis. Complexity is a multifaceted concept, with no single agreed definition. There are numerous approaches to defining and measuring complexity and organization, all involving the idea of information. Conceptions of complexity, order, organization, and ˙˙interesting order˙˙ are inextricably intertwined with those of information. Shannon's formalism captures information's unpredictable creative contributions to organized complexity; a full understanding of information's relation to structure and order is still lacking. Conceptual investigations of this topic should enrich the theoretical basis of the information science discipline, and create fruitful links with other disciplines that study the concepts of information and complexity.

˙˙Waiting for Carnot˙˙: Information and complexity
David Bawden and Lyn Robinson

Journal of the Association for Information Science and Technology
Early View

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Topological effects of network structure on long-term social network dynamics in a wild mammal

    Social structure influences ecological processes such as dispersal and invasion, and affects survival and reproductive success. Recent studies have used static snapshots of social networks, thus neglecting their temporal dynamics, and focused primarily on a limited number of variables that might be affecting social structure. Here, instead we modelled effects of multiple predictors of social network dynamics in the spotted hyena, using observational data collected during 20 years of continuous field research in Kenya. We tested the hypothesis that the current state of the social network affects its long-term dynamics. We employed stochastic agent-based models that allowed us to estimate the contribution of multiple factors to network changes. After controlling for environmental and individual effects, we found that network density and individual centrality affected network dynamics, but that social bond transitivity consistently had the strongest effects. Our results
emphasise the significance of structural properties of networks in shaping social dynamics.

Topological effects of network structure on long-term social network dynamics in a wild mammal
Amiyaal Ilany, Andrew S. Booms and Kay E. Holekamp

Ecology Letters
Early View

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On the tail risk of violent conflict and its underestimation

    We examine all possible statistical pictures of violent conflicts over common era history with a focus on dealing with incompleteness and unreliability of data. We apply methods from extreme value theory on log-transformed data to remove compact support, then, owing to the boundedness of maximum casualties, retransform the data and derive expected means. We find the estimated mean likely to be at least three times larger than the sample mean, meaning severe underestimation of the severity of conflicts from naive observation. We check for robustness by sampling between high and low estimates and jackknifing the data. We study inter-arrival times between tail events and find (first-order) memorylessless of events. The statistical pictures obtained are at variance with the claims about "long peace".

On the tail risk of violent conflict and its underestimation
Pasquale Cirillo, Nassim Nicholas Taleb

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