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Hi all

Not everything that propagates in social networks does it in a viral explosion. In fact, if propagation happens below the “epidemic threshold”, cascade dynamics is highly affected by the distribution of response/interaction times (RT times) to the point that spreading could be logarithmic in time.

We studied this type of propagation some time ago in real experiments made by IBM in viral marketing campaigns. Some of the cascades took years to die out.

Here are some links:

http://estebanmoro.org/2009/08/impact-of-human-activity-patterns-on-the-dynamics-of-information-diffusion/ <http://estebanmoro.org/2009/08/impact-of-human-activity-patterns-on-the-dynamics-of-information-diffusion/>
J. L. Iribarren and E. Moro, Physical Review Letters 103, 038702 (2009)

http://estebanmoro.org/2011/11/branching-dynamics-of-viral-information-spreading/ <http://estebanmoro.org/2011/11/branching-dynamics-of-viral-information-spreading/>
Physical Review E 84, 046116 (2011)

The good thing was that we were able to model cascade dynamics using a well-known non-markovian mathematical model in branching processes.

Esteban

Esteban Moro Egido
Dept. Mathematics | Universidad Carlos III de Madrid 
Tel.: (+34) 916248727 · estebanmoro.org <http://estebanmoro.org/>
> El 19 ene 2016, a las 20:45, Valdis Krebs <[log in to unmask]> escribió:
> 
> ***** To join INSNA, visit http://www.insna.org *****
> 
> Folks,
> 
> If anyone is studying the viral diffusion of  messages/tweets on Twitter/onine networks, they might be interested in one of my tweets.
> 
> Normally when one tweets, if there will be a viral explosion, it happens quickly and continues quickly and dies quickly.  My tweet, started slowly and keeps going slowly — but, keeps going nonetheless.  Still being actively retweeted after 3 days. Seems to be crossing country borders in the process.  Kind of like the Turtle vs. the Hare
> 
> Here is the link to the tweet(which is from my business Twitter account), not sure if there are tools to track one tweet over time?  Some type of snowball sampling?
> 
> https://twitter.com/orgnet/status/688412071818579968 <https://twitter.com/orgnet/status/688412071818579968>
> 
> Also, for a comparison… I tweeted almost the exact same message (added “the”) from my personal Twitter account.
> 
> It was not as viral as the one from the business account… it stopped spreading after a few days. Yet, I have 3x as many followers on my personal account than my biz account.
> 
> The link to the similar tweet is here:  https://twitter.com/ValdisKrebs/status/688229707972644864 <https://twitter.com/ValdisKrebs/status/688229707972644864>
> 
> Both tweets travelled (via RT=retweet) past my network horizon(Friedkin, 1983), something that Watts found very rare in his early studies of online diffusion networks(2012).
> 
> Timing of tweets seems to be very important… who is paying attention at the time of the tweet? And then… who is paying attention to them?
> 
> Would be interested in any research that comes of this.  
> 
> Valdis
> 
> Valdis Krebs
> Orgnet, LLC
> Twitter: @orgnet
> http://orgnet.com <http://orgnet.com/>
> http://thenetworkthinkers.com
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valdis_Krebs
> 
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