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Thought you might be interested in this.  Tom

> -----Original Message-----
> From: Martha Maxwell [SMTP:[log in to unmask]]
> Sent: Sunday, November 14, 1999 7:45 PM
> To:   [log in to unmask]
> Subject:      Predictors of College Success
>
> What is the best predictor of college success?
> Not SAT or ACT scores says Cliff Adelman of the US
> Dept. of Ed. Research Office. He adds that neither
> are those other numbers used in college admission
> like HS GPA and rank in H. S. graduating class very
> good predictors for their sharpness has been dulled
> by years of grade inflation.
>
> Although, SAT scores do a pretty good job or
> predicting first semester grades, but politicians and
> institutions and the public are more interested in
> graduation rates. Yet SAT scores get almost all of
> the media attention.
>
> Curriculum beats all other measures in predicting
> who will graduate from college and as Adelman
> points out, it is the only factor that educators can do
> anything about. He reports that "72 percent of Afro-
> American students who got beyond Algebra II, took
> Advanced Placement Courses and attended four
> year colleges or universities earned bachelor's
> degrees.   For Latinos, the graduation figure was
> 79%. "
>
> Adelman adds that the media feeding frenzy
> following every annual report of institutional
> rankings on the SAT gives the SAT a powerful
> symbolism that it does not deserve (and I might add
> makes ETS richer). It is implied that the US as a
> nation will stand or fall on the SAT.
>
> He cites evidence that the propaganda about racial
> differences on the SAT causes many minority
> students to freeze up on the test.
>
> In truth, although 70 per cent of students entering
> college take the SAT, the scores are considered for
> admissions purposes in only about 200 of the 1800
> four year colleges. Certainly, none of the 1200 two-
> year colleges consider SATs in admitting students.
>
> Martha Maxwell
> Ref:
> Adelman, Clifford. "Why Can't We Stop Talking
> About the SAT?" (Nov. 5, 1999). Chronicle of Higher
> Education, B4-5.